by Mia Taylor
With two Republican primaries already in the books, the 2024 presidential election is truly shifting into high gear.
And while Donald Trump has not yet been named the official Republican nominee for president, should he end up heading to a showdown with President Joe Biden and ultimately winning re-election, there will inevitably be policy changes as part of a new administration.
It’s possible to look back to Trump’s first term in office in order to discern what another Trump presidency might hold, but if there’s one thing for certain about Trump, it is that he’s highly unpredictable.
With that in mind, TravelPulse asked travel industry professionals to weigh in on how they think a second term in office for Trump might impact the travel industry.
Here’s what they had to say.
Little Immediate Impact
Despite what pundits and politicians may have to say on the matter, Christopher Falvey, co-founder of New Orleans, Louisiana-based Unique NOLA Tours, does not believe any one president can have an immediate impact on business or the economy.
As CBS recently reported, presidents get too much credit when the economy does well and too much blame when it slumps. Typically, it takes years for the impacts of a presidential administration to truly be felt. The ups and downs of the economy have far more to do with forces beyond an individual president’s control.
“And even if you think a Republican presidency would affect business in a positive way immediately, Trump is not a typical Republican, and is a complete wild card in terms of any effects he has on the business universe,” says Falvey.
With that said, the tour company co-founder does believe there are some ways in which a Trump re-election might have an an obvious impact.
“The…immediate effect I can see is for companies employing overseas staff, especially those living in the US. The USA-first rhetoric may make that more difficult,” says Falvey.
But that’s not the only potential ramification that Falvey foresees.
He also predicts that his own tour company’s policies might have to be adjusted or revised somewhat should Trump land back in office.
“Trump, being a populist, brings divisiveness to people on both sides of the aisle,” says Falvey. “We love our guests bantering with each other, sometimes in a very adult fashion on our tours. But more and more we have to keep a no politics rule and I see that having to be enforced more if we see a Trump victory.”
Exodus of Americans
Jen Barnett runs the company Expatsi, which specializes in helping Americans move abroad. As part of that mission, the company hosts scouting trips to other countries.
With the possibility of Trump being re-elected looming large, Barnett’s business has taken off.
“Right now, nearly 100 percent of our clientele are people who are looking to move to escape a Trump re-election—or [to escape] the related political divisiveness regardless of the election outcome,” begins Barnett.
In other words, the potential of another Trump presidency is already driving some business in the travel industry, for businesses like Barnett’s.
Expatsi recently completed an analysis of the more than 42,000 people who visited the company’s site within the last year, digging into reasons why site visitors said they’re seeking to leave the United States.
The top reason cited was adventure and personal growth, but the next three top answers—many of which came from women—were all related to politics:
- For more or different freedoms
- Because the U.S. is too divided
- Because the U.S. is too conservative
“People always say that if such-and-such president is elected they’re going to leave, but they rarely do because moving is difficult and a little scary,” continues Barnett. “We’re finding that the fear of another Trump presidency, for many of our clients, outweighs the fear of moving to another country where they don’t know the culture or speak the language. This is a familiar trade-off for immigrants all over the world, but it seems to be the first time Americans have felt this way in such large numbers.”
This Too, Shall Pass
Casey Halloran is maintaining what he says is a realistic-yet-optimistic view of a second Trump presidency.
“It’s probably an unpopular answer,” says Halloran, co-founder of Namu Travel Group. “But I think the impact for the destinations we serve—Central America—will be minimal. For those operating in destinations where foreign policy is more likely to be impacted, I would be concerned.”
With perhaps the exception of Nicaragua, which has experienced some significant political turmoil, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize don’t tend to see much up-and-down based on who occupies the White House, adds Halloren.
Furthermore Latin American relations weren’t a huge part of Trump’s first term. And Halloren doesn’t believe that would change much should Trump win another term in office.
“Overall, given that we made it through Trump’s first term and a pandemic, I’m bullish that this too shall pass,” adds Halloren.
Pros And Cons of Second Trump Term
For some in the travel industry, a Trump re-election may bring both benefits and drawbacks. A luxury travel agent, and co-founder of an agency that works with celebrities and ultra high net worth individuals, Antonella D’Angelo falls into this group.
The impacts of Trump returning to office would be linked to his decisions and behaviors on a variety of fronts including economic policies, international relations, and travel regulation.
“If Trump’s administration pursues diplomatic strategies that strengthen international relationships, it could positively impact global travel,” begins D’Angelo, of NCG Experience. “Improved relations with key countries might lead to increased cross-border luxury travel opportunities.”
Trump’s economic policies, such as tax incentives or stimulus packages, could influence consumer spending. Positive economic conditions might encourage affluent travelers to indulge in luxury vacations, benefiting the high-end travel sector.
When it comes to drawbacks, a renewed Trump administration may lead to the implementation of restrictive travel regulations and health policies in response to global events, suggests D’Angelo.
“For instance, decisions related to border control, quarantine measures, or vaccination requirements could affect the ease and desirability of luxury travel,” she says.
Policies promoting infrastructure development, including airports and tourism facilities, meanwhile, might enhance the overall travel experience. In addition, improved infrastructure could attract luxury travelers seeking seamless and sophisticated journeys.
It’s also important to consider how a renewed Trump administration might respond to the state of the planet and the eruption of crisis around the world.
“In the face of unexpected global events, such as natural disasters or geopolitical crises, the leadership’s crisis management approach becomes crucial. A swift and effective response could mitigate negative impacts on the travel industry,” says D’Angelo.
Only Time Will Tell…
As a tourism expert with years of experience, Wayne Kask has witnessed time and again how political decisions influence the travel industry. And like many others, as the presidential election nears, he has been pondering the impacts of a second Trump term.
The founder and CEO of the website Always On The Shore says a Trump re-election could further shift travel trends that have emerged in recent years.
“Trump [previously] touted his ‘America First’ agenda as protecting national security,” says Kask. “A re-elected President Trump may pursue additional measures prioritizing American
interests, which could affect travel flows.”
For instance, says Kask, altered trade policies toward certain nations could influence business travel and exchange programs. And heightened tensions with allies like the European Union may curb the flow of visitors from the EU and cultural exchange.
“Here in Florida, we’d be watching closely for any impacts on European, Latin American, and Canadian tourists,” adds Kask.
On the flip side, the strength of the U.S. economy during a portion of Trump’s time in office appeared to provide a boon for domestic travel, says Kask. In particular, he suggests low unemployment meant more discretionary income for vacations.
“As travel rebounded after early pandemic declines, destinations like beaches saw a surge of Americans planning vacations and road trips. If economic recovery sustains, travel could remain a bright spot,” suggests Kask.
Though to be fair, employment levels have been even more robust under Biden. Per a recent report in The Washington Post, Biden has added 14 million jobs in less than three years, bringing the Black unemployment rate to a record low and reducing student loan debt by billions. The monthly job creation rate under Biden was an average of more than 400,000 positions, the Washington Post reported.
Under Trump, the economy added an average 176,000 jobs a month during his first three years, before coronavirus-related closures and layoffs resulted in the sudden loss of more than 20 million jobs.
Trump, meanwhile, presided over a period of low interest rates driven by pandemic recovery stimulus measures and low gas prices.
Economic figures aside, Kask says going forward, the industry will likely need to analyze any new directives and legislation for what he calls “mobility impacts.” And in doing so, travel brands will likely find themselves tailoring their messaging based on the administration’s policy approach.
At the same time, regional tourism departments may end up focusing more on promotional efforts domestically, should a Trump administration impact international visitor flow.
“A potential second Trump term could bring continued travel policy shifts necessitating careful adaptation across the industry, “ says Kask. “Only time will tell how political decisions reshape the travel landscape in Trump’s America and places like Florida that rely so heavily on tourism spending. Flexibility will be crucial in this uncertain climate.”
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